There he presented current germany data and climate trends based on almost two dozen regional climate models spanning the period from 1951 to 2100. Most of these predict a temperature increase of three degrees celsius by the turn of the century, compared to the long-term average of 8.2 degrees celsius. "Climate change will change our weather patterns. He’s going to get our weather chimney moving," said DWD expert klaus-jurgen schreiber.
"The basic finding is: the main wind systems and with them the high and low pressure areas tend to shift towards the poles," said schreiber. The consequences: especially in the winter months, low-pressure areas rich in rain from the west will bring dangerous heavy rains more often in the future. "This must interest flood protection above all," said schreiber.
In summer, on the other hand, humid weather conditions become rarer overall. Dry high-pressure systems over the north sea are forecast to remain stable: "this will lead to more drought and a trend toward more drought, low water and risks in water management."Agriculture in particular, but also energy suppliers and waterworks, are affected.
These findings on climate change needed to be incorporated into development plans and laws much more than they have been so far, the experts demanded. "So far, however, the business community has been less receptive to these findings than desired," said DWD vice president paul becker. There is no longer any doubt that climate change is primarily man-made. "Natural influences such as solar activity play a subordinate role".
The long-term rise in temperatures, which has been unbroken for decades, is also confirmed by the figures for 2011: with an average of 9.6 degrees, it was the fourth warmest year since records began in germany in 1881. Of the past 30 years, 24 turned out to be too warm. The sunniest and second-warmest spring since records began and a rainy, comparatively cool summer were followed by an unusually warm, sunny fall. November was even the driest month ever observed in this country.
Even the first four months of 2012 are already almost one degree above the long-term average. "Climate change has not changed direction," concludes DWD climate analyst gerhard muller-westermeier.